Winter's Formula Calculator

Find the expected PaCO₂ with Winter's formula.

How it is calculated

The tool applies expected PaCO₂ = 1.5 × HCO₃⁻ + 8, where bicarbonate is the serum HCO₃⁻ in mEq/L (mmol/L) and the result is in mmHg. It then shows the usual tolerance of ±2, so you get an expected value plus a low and a high bound. The formula describes the respiratory compensation expected in a metabolic acidosis.

Only a bicarbonate above zero is accepted; zero or negative input gives no result. The calculator does not diagnose anything: it does not check pH, does not confirm that an acidosis is present, and uses PaCO₂ in mmHg only, so a value in kPa must be converted first. Compare the range with the patient's measured PaCO₂ from the same blood gas, and interpret it with the clinical picture.

Worked example

Serum bicarbonate 12 mEq/L. Multiply: 1.5 × 12 = 18. Add 8: 18 + 8 = 26.00 mmHg expected PaCO₂. With the ±2 tolerance the range runs from 24.00 mmHg to 28.00 mmHg. If the measured PaCO₂ lies inside 24 to 28, the respiratory response matches the acidosis; a value above the range points to less ventilatory compensation than expected, and below it to more.

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Common mistakes

  • Using it for a problem that is not a metabolic acidosis. The formula is built for that case; for a metabolic alkalosis or a primary respiratory disorder it does not apply.
  • Entering the anion gap, base excess or total CO₂ instead of the serum bicarbonate (HCO₃⁻).
  • Comparing the result with a PaCO₂ given in kPa. The output is in mmHg, so convert first.
  • Forgetting the ±2 band and treating 26 as a single exact target. A measured value of 25 or 27 is still inside the expected range.
  • Using the venous or capillary CO₂ as if it were arterial PaCO₂, which can differ from the arterial value.

About this calculator

Winter's formula, expected PaCO₂ = 1.5 × [HCO₃⁻] + 8 ± 2, predicts how much a patient's lungs should be blowing off CO₂ to compensate for a metabolic acidosis. It's derived from the empirical relationship between measured bicarbonate and the respiratory compensation seen in acid-base studies, giving an expected range rather than a single number.

Emergency and critical care physicians apply it when reading an arterial blood gas alongside a low bicarbonate: if the patient's actual PaCO₂ falls within the predicted range, the respiratory system is compensating appropriately for the metabolic acidosis alone; if it's higher or lower than expected, a second, independent respiratory acidosis or alkalosis is also present — a mixed disorder that changes management.

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